RIGHT NOW, HASTILY evacuated villages along the Dnipro River are being flooded as an enormous reservoir of water – that was being held back by the now partially destroyed Kakhovka dam – courses through them, causing displacement and destruction.
It’s too soon to know if there has been any loss of human life, or to pinpoint the exact nature of the attack on the dam, which is in territory that Russia currently controls, in close proximity the cities of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
These are the two areas where many thought Ukraine’s much anticipated counter-offensive would see its military soon breakthrough.
The major dam is part of a hydroelectric power station on the Dnieper River, which separates Russian-controlled Crimea from the territories Russia has taken in mainland Ukraine since its invasion began.
Footage from Nova Kakhovka, the city immediately downstream from the dam shows the Palace of Culture and administrative centre completely flooded.
Ukranian President Vlodimir Zelenskyy has swifty condemned the attack on the dam as a Russian act of “terror”.
Russian state media has claimed that Ukraine damaged the dam by targeting it with its Olkha multiple missile launcher, citing an unnamed source.
No evidence has emerged to support this claim.
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has been swift to support Ukraine, and said that Ireland will stand with the country “for as long as it takes”.
He said the attack showed “a reckless indifference to human suffering.”
EU chief Charles Michel has expressed shock at the attack, and vowed that Russia “and its proxies” will be held accountable.
So, why would Russia want to attack such a significant resource and piece of infrastructure in an area it controls?
In the last month Moscow has focused on heavily fortifying a frontline of around 1,000 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory it is occupying, in anticipation for a Ukrainian attack aiming to break through and sever the land corridor between these occupied territories and Crimea.
Dr Tom Clonan, senator and security analyst, said that attacking the dam would be a “desperate move” by Russia to slow down Ukraine’s counter-offensive.
“The whole world has been holding its breath to see how and where the Ukrainians are going to launch their counter-offensive.
“The most likely areas for them to do that have been Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, which are in the area south of where the dam is located, so both areas will now be impacted by flooding,” Dr Clonan explained.
Ukraine is in possession of an array of tanks and weapons sourced from Western countries, including 1,500 armoured AFVs and 200 battle tanks.
“By flooding these areas, Russia would make them temporarily unsuitable for heavy Ukrainian armoury to advance.
“The dam is in the delta area of the river that flows towards the sea. You can’t flood all of that, but you can in parts, and in doing so you can deny grounds to Ukraine,” Dr Clonan added.
There would be little for Ukraine to gain in destroying such a vital piece of infrastructure, which plays a key role in the cooling operations of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power point, which the UN is involved in monitoring while it is under the control of Moscow -installed authorities.
Ukraine has said that the risks of a nuclear disaster at the plant have greatly worsened, but the UN has said that the situation is being looked at closely, and is under control.
“For Russia, there is also an element here of showing the West what it is prepared to do, by attacking a huge dam that is linked so closely with the nuclear plant, they are saying ‘This is what we are prepared to do’,” Dr Clonan said.
He added that while this attack may impact Ukraine’s looming offensive slightly, it won’t hold it back.
“Russia is spooked. A breakthrough now by Ukraine would be humiliating for Putin.
“It has attempted to pin the attack on Ukraine. While it is possible that Ukraine could be responsible, it is highly unlikely, the country would not benefit from this attack in any way.
“If you look at who would benefit from an attack of that magnitude, the answer is Russia. It would be a huge challenge for Ukraine to pull of an attack like this from its territories, and there would be quite a lot of evidence left behind,” he added.
Paul Dorfman, the chair of the Nuclear Consulting Group and an associate fellow at the University of Sussex, told Sky News earlier that the main risk to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is that is the water levels at the Kakhovka reservoir drop too low for an extended period of time, the plant’s nuclear waste cooling ponds could release radiation pollution.
Five reactors at the plant have been put into cold shut down to avoid risk, with one still remaining active.
Despite this, Dorfman said that if the reservoir levels drop below 12.7 metres, it puts cooling operations at risk.
The plant operator Energoatom said that it has a plan to mitigate low water levels which involves using backup generators, but Dorfman said that this is not a good enough long-term strategy to avoid “catastrophic nuclear risk”.
To embed this post, copy the code below on your site
have your say